What is velocity and how do you use it for capacity planning?

Question

Accepted Answer

Velocity is the **amount of work (usually story points) a team completes per Sprint, averaged over recent Sprints**. It is a forecasting aid, not a performance target. You use it to predict how much the team can realistically take on next.

## How to use it

```text
- Average the last 3-5 Sprints' completed points
- Use that range (not a single number) to forecast
- Adjust capacity for holidays, leave, support load
- Forecast a release: remaining backlog points / velocity
```

A team averaging 30 points with 6 people, losing one to vacation, plans closer to 25 for that Sprint.

## Concrete example

A backlog of 120 points and a velocity of ~30 suggests roughly four Sprints to finish — communicated as a range ("4-5 Sprints"), not a promise.

## Common pitfalls

- **Weaponizing velocity** as a productivity metric — teams respond by inflating estimates.
- Comparing velocity across teams; points are relative to each team.
- Forecasting from one Sprint instead of an average, ignoring normal variation.

## Why it matters

Velocity turns relative estimates into a realistic forecast, helping the team commit to achievable scope.

Treated as a forecasting tool rather than a target, it protects the team from over-commitment and supports honest conversations with stakeholders.