你如何评估工作量和管理时间表？

Question

你如何评估工作量和管理时间表？

Accepted Answer

**评估**是预测工作需要多长时间；**时间表管理**是根据这些预测进行规划和调整。核心真相：估计是*概率性猜测*，不是承诺——把它们当作承诺是大多数进度问题的根源。

## 评估技术

```text
✓ BREAK DOWN → estimate small tasks; big things are always underestimated
✓ RELATIVE sizing → story points / t-shirt sizes (S/M/L) over false-precise hours
✓ Use HISTORY → what did similar work actually take? (velocity)
✓ THREE-POINT → best / likely / worst case to capture uncertainty
✓ Involve the people DOING the work — not just the lead
```

## 考虑不确定性和现实

```text
✓ Add buffer for the unknown (integration, review, bugs)
✓ Remember NON-coding time → meetings, support, code review, testing
✓ Beware the planning fallacy → people are reliably optimistic
✓ Express ranges, not single points → "3–5 days," not "4 days"
```

## 管理时间表

```text
✓ Track progress vs. plan continuously
✓ Surface slippage EARLY — bad news doesn't improve with age
✓ Re-estimate as you learn; the plan is a hypothesis
✓ When behind, adjust scope/resources/date — don't just hope
```

## 一个具体的例子

当被问到