评估是预测工作需要多长时间;时间表管理是根据这些预测进行规划和调整。核心真相:估计是概率性猜测,不是承诺——把它们当作承诺是大多数进度问题的根源。
评估技术
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✓ BREAK DOWN → estimate small tasks; big things are always underestimated
✓ RELATIVE sizing → story points / t-shirt sizes (S/M/L) over false-precise hours
✓ Use HISTORY → what did similar work actually take? (velocity)
✓ THREE-POINT → best / likely / worst case to capture uncertainty
✓ Involve the people DOING the work — not just the lead
考虑不确定性和现实
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✓ Add buffer for the unknown (integration, review, bugs)
✓ Remember NON-coding time → meetings, support, code review, testing
✓ Beware the planning fallacy → people are reliably optimistic
✓ Express ranges, not single points → "3–5 days," not "4 days"
